– Increased demand for personal mobility due to public transportation avoidance due to COVID-1919 –
– Pay attention to small, low-speed vehicles with convenience and comfort at the same time –
– The rapid rise of items for safe personal mobility such as 360-degree helmets and wearable airbags –
Recently, a motorcycle boom has been rekindled in Japan. From January to June 2021, domestic shipments (excluding motorized bicycles with a displacement of 1cc or less) were 6 units, up 50% year-on-year, exceeding 30.1 units for the first half of the year for the first time in 12 years. If this trend continues into the second half, annual shipments are expected to reach 4,590 units, the highest level in 13 years since 10. In the early 24s, annual shipments were around 1998 units, but due to factors such as a declining birth rate and repeated strengthening of exhaust gas regulations, they decreased to around 23 units in 1990. However, demand has been recovering recently, driven by an increase in middle-aged and older returning riders* and young people and women getting into motorcycles due to motorcycle-themed anime. As the COVID-40 situation continues, motorcycles are gaining popularity as a leisure and transportation method that allows people to avoid close contact with others.
* Among the users who rode a motorcycle when they were young, but who left afterward, when they became middle-aged, they could afford to buy a motorcycle again because of the economic/time leeway.
REBEL 3 (left) and Kawasaki Z1RS (right), which ranked first in sales for three consecutive years
This model, which had been consistently popular, is now experiencing a shortage due to the combined effects of COVID-1919 (shortage of semiconductors and containers).
<Super Curve> (left), which is popular among young people with original novels, manga, and animation
<Super Curve> (right), used as the title, is Honda's representative model that has exceeded 1 million units in cumulative production worldwide.
Not only motorcycles, but also the bicycle market is booming. According to Imperial Databank, a large Japanese research company, the bicycle sales market (based on business sales. Estimated) in 2020 hit a record high of 2,100 billion yen. According to a survey by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan, the number of bicycles shipped in 2020 was approximately 162 million units, similar to the previous year, but the shipment value (6 billion yen) increased by 771 billion yen compared to the previous year, confirming the trend of <bicycles becoming more luxurious>. In recent years, the mainstays of the bicycle market have been sports-type bicycles and electric-assist bicycles. In particular, electric-assist bicycles have shown rapid growth, with sales increasing by more than 5% compared to five years ago. It seems that the increase in customer demand for expanding the radius of life while avoiding close contact with others due to COVID-40 has served as the background for sales growth.
The sports-type Panasonic XU1 (left) and the foldable, stylish Daytona DE01 (right)
If electric bicycles for the elderly and transporting children (infants) were the mainstream, they are expanding the market to sports, commuting/commuting, and folding.
In addition, in Japan, as the first public road sharing service, demonstration tests of electric kickboards began in April 2021, and of foldable electric bikes in September. A representative company that received special measures for electric kickboard sharing services is Japan's first shared kickboard startup, 'Luup.' Daiki Okai (4), President of Luup, said, He responded positively.
As has already been reported in the media, the demand for <personal mobility> has increased rapidly due to the global pandemic of COVID-1919. The fact that there are six personal mobility-related products in the top 50 of all-time funding amounts on MAKUAKE, Japan's representative crowdfunding platform (the first place is an electric assist bicycle with a total funding amount of 6 million yen) indirectly confirms the demand and popularity of personal mobility in the Japanese market.
Next-generation personal mobility such as electric kickboards that are rapidly increasing in popularity
Electric kickboard sharing service demonstration test in Shibuya (left)
Electric kickboard product with 1.5 million yen secured through crowdfunding (right)
Meanwhile, according to the Japanese Road Traffic Act, vehicles are classified only as automobiles, motorbikes, and light vehicles, so the legal position of next-generation personal mobility is unclear at present. While the existing traffic laws cannot take advantage of the performance and convenience, personal mobility-related accidents are also increasing recently, so the work on reorganizing the related regulations is currently in full swing. The classification of next-generation personal mobility according to the current regulations and the classification in the new proposal currently under review are as follows.
Classification of ultra-compact mobility by the Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport
Next-generation mobility taxonomy being reviewed by the Learners' Conference
In the interim report, there is a possibility that the dissemination of electric kickboards will gain momentum as the classification of <small low-speed vehicles> in which a license is not required and helmets are worn voluntarily is suggested.
In summary, it can be said that next-generation personal mobility in Japan is divided into <ultra-small mobility>, <small low-speed vehicle>, and <sidewalk vehicle> (small low-speed vehicles and sidewalk vehicles are considered temporary because they are being deliberated by the informed review meeting). ). Under the current circumstances, commercial use is permitted only for motorized bicycles (including motorcycles) and light vehicles, which are the existing personal mobility. The electric kickboard sharing service described above is still in the demonstration stage, and Toyota launched the ultra-small mobility in December 2020. is still being sold to corporations and local governments only (personal use is scheduled for 2022). The next-generation personal mobility, which starts from now on overhauling laws and infrastructure, is still in its infancy. Therefore, the personal mobility market will be dominated by existing means such as motorcycles and electric assist bicycles for the time being.
Personal Mobility Classification
The dotted line is the classification currently under consideration at the National Police Agency's Knowledgeable Meeting.
However, the market for next-generation personal mobility is expected to rapidly expand as long as relevant laws and infrastructure are improved. Among them, <small low-speed car> with <convenience and comfort that did not exist before> seems to be the most promising. Ultra-small mobility and sidewalk vehicles are located on the extension of the existing mobility of <ultra-low-speed vehicles that do not require a license (electric wheelchairs, electric carts for the elderly)> and <light vehicles that require a license>, respectively. On the other hand, in the case of small low-speed vehicles, although they are not as good as motorized bicycles or motorcycles, they can move at a considerable high speed compared to walking, and high demand is expected in the future because they are new mobility that are free from driver's licenses, helmets, and pedals. Wearing a helmet will eliminate the inconvenience of wearing a hairstyle or wearing restrictions (skirts, high heels, etc.) due to pedal operation, which is easy and convenient regardless of conditions such as having a license, age, gender, physical ability, and clothing. This leads to the realization of comfortable and fast movement. The compact low-speed car has both convenience and comfort that did not exist in the existing personal mobility. In addition, when considering other laws, taxes, target customers, and speed of penetration, the compact low-speed car is highly likely to become the most attractive blue ocean among personal mobility. Even now, many manufacturers have entered this field, but it is also very symbolic that in October 2021, Toyota, the largest player in the industry, finally released an electric kickboard after all preparations.
Personal mobility launched in October 2021
The introduction of the use of walking (left) and SECOM's resident security (right) in large urban parks has been confirmed.
As a new demand arising from the personal mobility business, EV-related parts industries such as batteries, motors, sensors, semiconductors, and frame bodies (light and rigid) are promising. The demand for protective equipment for body protection is also a scale that cannot be ignored. Since the driver's body is often exposed to external hazards when using personal mobility, there is a high risk of serious injury in the event of an accident. If you try to deal with a collision avoidance method (active safety) in advance, there will be a need for image processing related to radar, infrared, and camera, which are frequently installed in recent vehicles. If you want to cope with impact mitigation (passive safety) in the event of a collision, you will need airbags, helmets, and protectors. For example, the motorcycle world championships Airbags became compulsory in 2018, and airbags began to be distributed little by little to general riders. Recently, the crowdfunding platform Makuake succeeded in funding of 1 billion yen. The HUD (Head-Up Display) and rear camera that enable a 1,699-degree field of view for safety when driving an electric kickboard were mounted on the helmet and enjoyed great popularity.
Airbags for motorcycles made by DAINESE, Italy smart jacket with
The airbag part (chest/back) is the only one in the world that meets CE standards (as of January 2021)
Appearance (left) and rear image (right) displayed on the upper HUD of the anterior view
Features such as 2.4GHz wireless connection, noise reduction, navigation, and built-in touch panel
implication
The global pandemic of the COVID-19 virus has led to a sharp increase in demand for personal mobility as anxiety/reluctance about using public transportation that requires close contact with others has increased. Meanwhile, separate from the COVID-19 situation, the introduction/dissemination of next-generation personal mobility is an inevitable step in Japan, where the declining birth rate, aging population, and population decline are rapidly progressing. Currently, 70% of Japan's route bus operators are in deficit. Excluding the three major metropolitan areas, the ratio soars to nearly 3%. The number of public transportation drivers is also continuously decreasing as the population ages. Considering the aging of Japan's transportation infrastructure, the "transport disadvantaged" who do not have transportation to their destinations and bases will inevitably expand from rural areas to all regions. As a countermeasure for this, the spread of next-generation personal mobility and MaaS (Mobility as a Service) is essential. Regarding this, President Okai of shared kickboard startup Luup said, "If railways are arteries, we are capillaries. He expressed his passion for the business, saying, “It will become an infrastructure that connects various parts of the neighborhood.”
If the response to the aging transportation infrastructure is emphasized as a superlative task, it may create a sense of urgency that <personal mobility must be spread as soon as possible>, just like the low birthrate, aging population, and population decline, and on the one hand, may create a negative impression. However, it is expected that personal mobility distribution will proceed smoothly as long as laws, infrastructure adjustments, and some promotion measures are provided. One of the reasons is that the manufacturing and profitability of personal mobility products have become a reality thanks to the remarkable performance improvement and price reduction of EV parts such as batteries, motors, and sensors.
And above all, personal mobility satisfies the fundamental human instinct to move freely without being restricted by conditions. Unlike cars that require you to enter the body, the pleasure and convenience realized through personal mobility, such as the sense of liberation you feel when you feel the wind directly, will be truly attractive to modern people who have been forced to refrain from outdoor activities due to the COVID-1919 situation. It is not as grandiose as a car and not as cumbersome as a bicycle. The demand for personal mobility that can be flexibly used by anyone easily and conveniently will continue to increase in the future.
In addition, it is necessary to broaden business horizons not only in personal mobility itself, but also in the underlying areas. In addition to finished cars and parts, there are fields of demand unique to personal mobility, such as the body protection equipment described above. As it is assumed that anyone of any age or gender is a user, it will be possible to develop products targeting each user group (such as a pretty helmet aimed at women). In addition, sectors that remain as blue oceans, such as vehicle management, maintenance, scrap car, and insurance, are expected to be promising for business as they are still in the early stages of market development.
According to Japanese trade statistics, it is difficult to say that Korean companies have succeeded in advancing into Japan in the existing personal mobility field (bicycle, motorcycle). However, compared to fields that are relatively friendly to existing car makers, such as ultra-small mobility, small cars have a lot of design freedom and open many possibilities depending on ideas and technologies, so new players entering the Japanese market are not likely to have many disadvantages. In fact, in the case of Segway, which can be seen as the progenitor of next-generation personal mobility, it was not a solution proposed by an existing large car maker, but a solution introduced by a start-up company founded in 1999. In Korea, the spread of personal mobility, centered on electric kickboards, has already been popularized, and the market has reached maturity to some extent. Meanwhile, since Japan's next-generation personal mobility market has just entered the pioneering stage, there will be plenty of room to challenge the Japanese market by utilizing the experience and know-how that Korean companies have accumulated in the Korean market.
Source: NIKKEI Shimbun, Kawasaki, Fair Motors, Honda, Japan National Police Agency, Makuake, etc., and data from KOTRA Tokyo Trade Center