'Flying car' to be showcased at Osaka-Kansai Expo 2025

Expected to form a huge market exceeding 2050 trillion yen by 100

The movement to introduce a 'flying car', that is, an Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL), which is expected to form a huge market of over 100 trillion yen, is in full swing in Japan. An eVTOL is an aircraft that hovers, takes off and lands vertically using electric power. The prelude to eVTOL will be announced at the Japan International Exposition 2025 (Osaka-Kansai Expo), which will open in April 4. It is a gigantic event set in Yumeshima, Osaka City, with one goal being to showcase the future mobility. What level is eVTOL at present and what kind of preparation is Japan preparing for its introduction?

'Flying car', the goal is commercial operation, not demonstration flight

The Japanese government has reviewed systems such as safety standards for flying vehicles, operational safety standards, pilot skill certification, short-term use cases, and mid- to long-term introduction trends. Based on this, in March of this year, the 'Roadmap for the Heavenly Movement Revolution' was revised at the '3th Public-Private Council for the Heavenly Movement Revolution'. Through this, it was decided to realize the commercial operation of flying cars at the 8 Osaka-Kansai Expo, improve the system, and develop technology for the expo and subsequent commercialization.

The Japanese government's goal is not just demonstration flights of eVTOL. It is to realize commercial operation on various routes centered on the exhibition site. Specifically, cruise flights around the expo and airport-expo connection routes with high demand are being discussed as candidates.

The movement to introduce eVTOL into society in Osaka Prefecture is quite earnest. According to Osaka Prefecture's plan, the Osaka-Kansai Expo is just the starting point for the eVTOL business. According to the "Osaka Edition Roadmap" announced by the Osaka Prefecture in March 22, in the start period around 3, regular flights will be operated on limited routes, piloted by licensed pilots. In the expansion period around 2025, as the automation rate increases, remote control without a pilot on board will be introduced, and in the maturity period after 2030, high-density operation of autonomous flight without human intervention will be realized. When autonomous flight of eVTOL is realized, it is expected that the 'air taxi' business will be established in urban areas and the market will expand explosively.

[Source: Nikkei Electronics]

According to the results of a global eVTOL market survey announced by Yano Economic Research Institute in May, the global eVTOL market size in 5 is only about 2025 billion yen, but is predicted to grow to 146 trillion yen in 2030, 6 trillion yen in 3900, and 2035 trillion yen in 19. Considering that the current global automobile market size is known to be around 5800 trillion yen, eVTOL is expected to show off its overwhelming presence in the future mobility market.

Taxi-level fares in the future?

The reason why eVTOL is highly expected is because it has three characteristics: 'electric', 'vertical take-off and landing', and 'autonomous flight'. Compared to conventional helicopters that use engines as power sources, eVTOLs, which use electric power as a power source, significantly reduce the number of parts used. If autonomous flight is realized in the future, pilots will become unnecessary, so operating costs will also be reduced. Unlike helicopters that fly with large propellers, eVTOLs fly with multiple small propellers, so noise is greatly reduced, and since vertical take-off and landing are the premise, the freedom of vertical take-off and landing is greatly increased.

In order to introduce eVTOL into society, three things are needed: 'main body', 'infrastructure', and 'service'. For example, in terms of hardware, maintenance of V-ports equipped with charging facilities is also indispensable, and this is directly connected to regional development. For this reason, various operators such as developers, trading companies, and MaaS (Mobility as a Service) operators are actively entering the market.

Japan Airlines (JAL) conducted a survey on the operation system and business model in October 2021 'Advanced Research on Flying Cars'. Specifically, the route from Osaka International Airport (Itami Airport) to Nankai Electric Railway Namba Station in the center of the city, and the straight route between the ryokan town of Toba City and Toshijima in Mie Prefecture, the fare per person and expected number of users , the required number of bodies, etc. were calculated.

In the case of a large plane (four passengers excluding the pilot), the break-even fare is 4 yen in the early morning and 1 yen in the mature period between Itami Airport and Namba Station. Depending on the traffic conditions, it takes 100 to 5800 minutes to travel this section by taxi, and the fare is about 30 yen. On the other hand, since the movement of eVTOL is expected to be within 50 minutes, demand is expected to be quite high if this freight rate is really realized.

According to an interview with a JAL official, “There are some numbers that have not been added at this point, but it is very meaningful to have calculated a number with a certain degree of accuracy for profitability. I think it can develop into a business,” he said, expressing his expectations.

 

<Survey results on the operation system and business model>

(Unit: yen, persons, units)

km unit price total fare Expected annual users Number of required body
Itami Airport⟺

Namba station route*

large plane dawn 700 10,100 47,393 4
maturity 400 5,800 163,343 11
small plane dawn 1,900 27,400 18,489 5
maturity 400 5,800 163,343 22
Toba City⟺

Toshijima Route**

large plane dawn 1,700 16,200 11,776 1
maturity 700 6,700 57,887 4
small plane dawn 2,700 25,800 8,171 2
maturity 600 5,700 61,216 8

Note: *) In case of straight line distance of 14.4km and occupancy rate of 100%

**) In case of straight line distance of 9.6km and occupancy rate of 100%

[Source: JAL, Nikkei Electronics]

The task of commercial operation at the expo is 'certification of airworthiness'

The 2025 Japan International Exposition Association, which hosts the Osaka-Kansai Expo, announced at the exhibition participation briefing session in August 21 that the flying car will realize take-off and landing facilities and maintenance storage with the cooperation of operators in the Mobility Experience area located northwest of the expo to realize sightseeing flights of various types of flying cars, airport and city movement, etc.

Specifically, after recruiting sponsors for the flight and airfield business, the plan is being promoted centering on these exhibitors. For example, the main body is selected by the operating operator, and the route is determined while coordinating with related ministries according to the flight distance, business stage, and V-port maintenance status.

There are still many tasks to realize commercial operation, and representative examples include acquisition of airworthiness certification for the main body, maintenance of pilot licenses, maintenance of V-ports, maintenance of various systems, and acquisition of social acceptance. Among these, a big point is whether or not the proof of airworthiness of the main body will be delayed. This is because commercial operation is impossible even if demonstration flights are possible unless the main body has obtained certification for airworthiness under the law.

<Scheduled take-off and landing area for eVTOL at the Expo>

[Source: Japan International Exposition Association 2025]

Currently, about 300 companies around the world are developing about 600 types of eVTOL machines, but it is expected that there will be very few main bodies that can obtain airworthiness certification before the 2025 Expo. Currently, manufacturers that are being discussed as candidates for the most powerful main body are Germany's Volocopter and Joby Aviation, and America's Vertical Aerospace.

Among Japanese companies, SkyDrive is developing a commercial aircraft 'SD-05' with the aim of operating at the expo. This is the follow-up to the one-seater sample aircraft 'SD-20', which the company demonstrated in August 8, and is an aircraft that has expanded the same multicopter type to two-seater. SkyDrive submitted an application for 'Type Certification' to the Aviation Bureau of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism for the first time as a Japanese-made eVTOL aircraft in October 1, and aims to acquire it by early 03.

teTra Aviation, a startup from the University of Tokyo, is also one of the companies aiming to realize commercial flights at the expo. The company developed the single-seat eVTOL aircraft 'Mk-1' in the United States, targeting the wealthy American class who own light aircraft as a hobby, and started pre-sale in July 5 at $21. Based on the basic design of the Mk-7, we are planning to develop a body that has been expanded to a two-seater, so if we obtain airworthiness certification, we intend to realize commercial flight at the Expo.

<SD-05 design under development>

[Source: SkyDrive]

Limitations of Multicopters and Batteries

It is the cruising distance and battery charging time that hold the key to the realization of commercial operation in the future. This is because they have a great influence on the business design of air taxis using eVTOL aircraft.

There are two types of eVTOL aircraft: fixed-wing type and non-fixed multicopter type. In general, the fixed wing type can use the lift of the fixed wing during cruise, so the flight efficiency is high and the cruising distance is longer than that of the multicopter. For example, while the cruising distance of the multicopter type 'VoloCi-ty' developed by Volocopter is 35km, Joby Aviation's thrust deflection type 'S4' is about 240km, which is a big difference. Therefore, there is a possibility that the multicopter type cannot be used for airport ↔ city transfers and inter-city transfers where demand is high.

According to an interview with manager S of Company J, who is well versed in eVTOL, “Competition to develop a 5-seater thrust deflection type is active worldwide. It is difficult to monetize because the route is limited to a multicopter-type two-seater, and only one person other than the pilot can ride.”

Battery charging is also expected to be a future task. In order to monetize the air taxi, it is necessary to quickly charge the body that landed on the V port to increase the operation rate as much as possible, but with current technology, it takes a considerable amount of time to charge. There is a high possibility that the business viability of eVTOL machines cannot be guaranteed with the current battery technology. Recently, an increasing number of companies are developing power systems with hybrids of gas turbines and batteries. A typical example is Honda's participation in the eVTOL business.

The eVTOL machine developed by Honda is a hybrid type and uses a gas turbine to turn a generator. During vertical take-off and landing, which requires high output, a combination of gas turbine generator and battery power is used. Honda plans to set 2030 as the target date for commercialization, launch a sample plane in the US around 2023, and then fly the main body of the hybrid engine in the US in 2025.

 

implication

Regarding the market size of the eVTOL main body, Rolls-Royd of the UK estimates that about 2030 units will operate worldwide by 7000. This is the reason why automobile manufacturers with strengths in mass production technology, such as Toyota Motor and Suzuki, are participating in the business in cooperation with domestic and foreign eVTOL manufacturers.

There are moves to aim for commercial flights at the Paris Olympics in 2024, but Japan's Osaka-Kansai Expo may become the world's first to introduce commercial flights in earnest due to the time required for preparation. It is an important first step to gain social acceptance by introducing the safety and convenience of the new air mobility with the image of 'carrying people and flying in the sky = dangerous' to the world.

Global attention is focused on whether Japan will be able to quickly solve institutional and technical challenges, establish itself as a new means of transportation through commercial operation at the Osaka-Kansai Expo in 2025, and stand at the forefront of the world.

Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan International Exhibition Association, Nikkei Shimbun, Nikkei Electronics, SkyDrive, JAL, etc. homepages, KOTRA Tokyo IT Center data collection

Source: KOTRA