German heat pump market to see 2024% sales decline in 46 due to complex legal regulations and consumer confusion
The industry sees 2025 as a turning point for the heat pump industry’s resurgence and carbon neutrality.
The German heat pump industry grew rapidly in 2023 with record sales volumes, but then declined again in 2024, revealing the market’s high volatility. In response, the German Heat Pump Association (Bundesverband Wärmepumpe, BWP) and the German Heating Industry Association (Bundesverband der Deutschen Heizungsindustrie, BDH) emphasized that more active policy support and structural improvements are needed starting from 2025 to ensure a stable recovery in the heat pump market and achieve the carbon neutrality target.
Sales Decrease in 2024, Cause?
2024년 독일 내 열펌프 판매량은 19만3000대로 전년도 35만6000대에 비해 46% 감소했다. 이는 연방정부가 설정한 연간 50만 대 설치 목표에 크게 못 미치는 수치로, 독일 열펌프 시장이 기대에 부응하지 못했음을 보여준다.
<German heat pump sales trends(2017-2024)>
(unit: big, %)
[data: German Heating Industry Association/German Heat Pump Association]
The Heating Industry Association is 2024The main reason for the slump in the German heat pump market in 2018 was the confusion caused to consumers by the 'Building Energy Act (Gebäudeenergiegesetz, GEG)' linking it to legal regulations. 2The Building Energy Act, which came into effect in 024, requires new heating systems to use at least 65% renewable energy. However, it initially applied only to some new buildings, and its linkage with district heating schemes has caused confusion and uncertainty for consumers. Consumers are reluctant to make decisions about replacing their heating systems due to the lack of clarity about how the heating network will be structured in their area, which has become a major cause of the market downturn. Markus Staudt, chairman of the Heating Industry Association, said that the current policy environment is not sufficient to promote modernization of heating systems, and stressed that rapid and concrete measures are needed to get the market back on a stable growth path.
<2024Year Heat Pump Sales Monthly>
(unit: big)
[data: German Heating Industry Association/German Heat Pump Association]
Recovery Potential and Market Outlook for 2025
2024년의 부진한 성과에도 불구하고, 독일 열펌프 협회는 2025년 열펌프 시장이 약 33% 성장하여 25만7000대의 판매량을 기록할 것으로 전망한다. 이러한 전망은 지난해 ‘효율적인 건축을 위한 연방 보조금(Bundesförderung für effiziente Gebäude, BEG)’ 프로그램을 통해 15만1000건 이상의 보조금 승인이 이루어진 결과와 밀접하게 관련되어 있다. 특히 December 한 달동안 약 3만7000건의 보조금 승인이 이루어졌는데, 이는 난방 보조금이 실질적인 효과를 발휘하고 있음을 보여주는 긍정적인 신호로 해석된다. Martin Zabel (Martin Sabel) “The subsidies are finally starting to take effect, and consumer interest in and demand for subsidies are steadily increasing,” said the president of the Heat Pump Association. He expressed his expectation that if this trend continues and subsidy programs become more active, the market will fully recover in 2025.
<Federal Grant Structure for Efficient Construction>
[data: [Federal Department of Economic and Climate Protection]
In addition, the Heat Pump Association predicts that the federal government’s target of more than 50 heat pumps per year can be achieved in the long term, and that the number of heat pumps in Germany will exceed 2030 million by 500. However, the analysis is that such growth is only achievable if supported by policy support and improvement of market structure. The association particularly emphasizes the restoration of consumer confidence and the maintenance of policy consistency as key factors in market recovery.
2025, Growth of the heat pump market and the watershed of energy transition
Meanwhile, the heat pump industry views heat pumps as a key technology for realizing a sustainable future and an important key to accelerating energy transition and achieving carbon neutrality goals, and sees 2025 as a very important period for achieving these goals.
실제 열펌프는 독일 에너지 전환 정책의 중심축으로 자리 잡고 있으며, 탄소중립 목표를 달성하기 위한 필수적인 기술로 인정받고 있다. 열펌프 협회의 자료에 따르면, 기존 석유 보일러(연간 CO₂ 배출량 9.4톤)와 가스보일러(7.37톤)에 비해 열펌프는 일반 열펌프(1.87톤)와 재생 가능 에너지를 사용하는 열펌프(0.07톤)를 통해 CO₂ 배출량을 최대 99%까지 줄일 수 있다. 이와 함께 열펌프는 1kWh의 전력으로 3.8kWh 이상의 열을 생성할 수 있는 뛰어난 에너지 효율성을 자랑하며, 재생 가능 에너지와 결합하면 화석연료 의존도를 크게 줄이고 에너지 전환을 더욱 가속할 수 있다. 이러한 특성으로 인해 열펌프는 단순한 난방 기술을 넘어 독일의 지속 가능한 미래를 이끄는 핵심 솔루션으로 주목받고 있다.
<Comparison of CO₂ emissions by heating device>
[data: [German Heat Pump Association]
But If the complex legal regulations and consumer instability issues revealed in 2024 are not resolved, the market growth is likely to remain limited in the future. Therefore, strengthening policy clarity and specific measures such as alleviating the burden of electricity rates are expected to play a key role in the development of the industry. In this context, the industry sees 2025 as an important point in which the government and industry will work together to create a consumer-centered policy environment, thereby realizing the resurgence of the heat pump industry and achieving the carbon neutrality goal.
implication
As seen, the German heat pump market is expected to recover after 2025 if the system is properly reorganized, and it is highly likely to achieve the goal of installing more than 50 units per year in the long term. This outlook is closely linked to Germany’s energy transition policy, and it is expected to provide new business opportunities for global companies as well. In particular, if Korean companies with excellent technology and efficiency establish customized strategies that meet the needs of the German market, they will be able to play an important role in the heat pump market with high growth potential.
Subject: German Heat Pump Association, German Heating Industry Association, German Federation Ministry of Economy and Climate Protection, handelsblatt, Tagesschau, KOTRA Hamburg Trade Office Data Summary