Younhee Ha, Professor, Graduate School of Energy and Environment, Korea University
The basic plan for national carbon neutrality and green growth of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration was released. As expected, various voices are emerging over the revised '2030 NDC (National Greenhouse Gas Reduction Target to be achieved by 2030)'. In particular, the industrial and energy sectors are hot potatoes. As we are producing the most, we have to set the most challenging goal, but at first glance it looks like we have retreated.
In this plan, the biggest concern was poured into the MOTIE statement. Among the sectoral reduction targets established by the previous government for 2021, the MOTIE inquiry target was a 2018% reduction compared to 14.5 emissions. That was lowered to 11.4% this time. Criticisms and concerns erupted, saying, “Isn’t it only for companies to look after” and “The industry can weaken its industrial competitiveness by failing to respond preemptively to carbon neutrality?” It's a legitimate concern.
But if you look a little deeper, you will see that there are many misunderstandings. The “2021 NDC Upward Plan,” announced in 2030, presented the total amount of reduction and the amount of reduction by sector with a target of 2030. However, it did not suggest a reduction path to how and how much it would reduce each year until 2030 to reach the target, and only the 2030 results were shown.
The 'National Carbon Neutral Green Growth Basic Plan' was the first to present an annual reduction path for the 2021% reduction target compared to the 2018 emission target set in 40. It should be ideal when presenting a vision of the distant future, but realistic when creating specific alternatives. The amount of reduction by the MOTIE gate can be said to be a harmony between the ideal and the reality.
To reduce carbon in industry, it is necessary to change raw materials and fuels, improve processes, and increase efficiency through automation and optimization. Investment and technology are essential. The industry said that it was impossible to achieve the existing NDC implementation plan with the current technology level and R&D speed, no matter how hard they tried. In particular, a problem arose in petrochemicals, as it turned out that the supply and demand of 'bio-materials', which were considered possible in large quantities in the existing plan, was virtually impossible. Some of the reductions in the petrochemical industry were transferred to semiconductors, which were said to have more capacity for reductions within the industry, and the rest was borne by the conversion sector and overseas reductions.
Emissions from the energy conversion sector refer to the carbon emitted when primary energy is converted into electricity. Fossil fuels such as coal, natural gas, and oil convert only 1 to 30 percent of the input raw materials into electricity and emit huge amounts of carbon when burned. That is why the expansion of the share of renewable energy such as solar power, wind power, and green hydrogen has become the core of energy policy around the world.
As reflected in the 10th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand (2022-2036), the draft of the government's National Carbon Neutral Green Growth Basic Plan aims to increase the share of new and renewable energy to 2030% by 21.6. However, in the review stage of the committee, the industrial complexes that consume the most energy in the country increased the proportion of self-contained solar power and additionally expanded other clean energy so that they could produce their own energy.
The additional emission reduction here is 400 million tonnes. It is yet to be determined how the clean energy sources responsible for the 400 million tonnes will be structured. The government said it would reflect the plan for this 11 million tons in the 400th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand. However, since the clean energy sources that can be utilized in terms of economics and technology are limited, most of them will be new and renewable energy. Therefore, the share of renewable energy in the conversion sector will increase significantly from 21.6%.
Nevertheless, it is true that there are many voices of concern because it is a retreat from the 2021% of renewable energy in 2030 of the 30 plan. I agree with that concern. It is not likely that the government did not anticipate these controversies. However, considering the internal and external environment, such as the slow pace of global carbon reduction and technological development trends, the Ukrainian crisis and economic recession, the slow pace of deregulation in offshore wind power, and conflicts with residents in the process of developing renewable energy, the choice reflects reality. I think this is not it.
Reducing carbon emissions by 2030% by 2018 compared to 40 is a very challenging goal. Compared to Europe's 40-year (1990-2030) 50% reduction plan, the United States' 25-year (2005-2030) 50% reduction plan, and Japan's 17-year (2013-2030) 46% reduction plan, it is expected to reduce 12% in 40 years. You can see how challenging our goal is. Moreover, while these countries are already setting targets in a situation where carbon emissions are decreasing, we are setting targets in a situation where carbon emissions are increasing. We also have a high proportion of manufacturing industries, such as steel and petrochemicals, which emit a lot of carbon, making it even more difficult to achieve the carbon reduction target.
Under the Paris Climate Agreement, this target can be raised, but not lowered. In order to keep our promise to the international community, we must achieve the 40% target. The National Basic Plan for Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth announced this time is a partial adjustment of sectoral plans such as industry and energy under the already set goals to match reality.
The national carbon neutrality and green growth basic plan began work last year. As a member of the 2050 Carbon Neutral Green Growth Committee, I met many people while directly or indirectly participating in the work. He met companies with high carbon emissions, such as steel and petrochemicals, energy-related companies such as KEPCO and power generation companies, and local residents around related facilities. There were really various voices of concern, and as there were many stakeholders, there were many different types of complaints and conflicting content.
The more I heard the story and the more I got to know the situation, the more I felt that achieving the 40% reduction goal was not easy. Even experts said it was impossible. Nevertheless, the government decided to keep the goal of 40%, and although it was difficult, based on various grounds, the national carbon neutrality and green growth basic plan was announced. In the MOTIE statement, it was adjusted in consideration of more reality, and in the energy sector, it was said that it would seek renewable energy as much as possible.
I think the detailed coordination between sectors of the National Carbon Neutrality Green Growth Basic Plan and NDC announced this time is meaningful in three ways.
First, the Republic of Korea, as a member of the international community, reaffirmed its commitment to fulfilling its responsibilities by reaffirming the very challenging goal of achieving the NDC. This shows that even if the government changes, the responsibility of the Republic of Korea does not change.
Second, if the 2021 NDC implementation plan was an ideal, the 2023 plan is a big step towards turning the ideal into a reality. Mitigation pathways have been created by 2030, which will guide governments for action including technology development and application, deregulation and policy formulation. Some are voicing critical voices saying, “There are a lot of reductions in the transition sector between 2027 and 2030, but isn’t it passing the responsibility to the next government?”
Large-scale offshore wind power and hydrogen/ammonia hybrid power generation account for a large portion of carbon reduction in the conversion sector. Offshore wind needs time to address regulatory issues and build plants. Co-firing of hydrogen and ammonia also requires time to develop co-firing technology and apply it to actual power generation facilities. Currently, technology development and demonstration are progressing toward the 2030 goal at the site. Its fruits can be picked after 2027, so the responsibility is not passed on to the next government, but this government is in charge of sowing seeds, fertilizing, and raising them so that the next government can harvest the fruits.
Third, it presented a clear signal to the industry. Initially, the industry said that 5% was the maximum possible reduction target. However, in this National Basic Plan for Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth, realistically and physically impossible parts were adjusted, but parts that were said to be impossible due to difficulties arising in the process of achieving such as complaints and regulations were not acknowledged.
The government sent a strong message that companies must overcome difficulties as the government will help them with policies, regulatory reforms, and subsidies. Based on this, companies will be more active in thinking and taking action for survival in an era where performance in carbon neutrality determines competitiveness in the global market.
Now that the guidelines for achieving the 2030 goals have been established, we must take active action. Carbon neutrality is a matter for the survival of the entire planet, and it is a goal that we must all come together to achieve. In 2021, carbon emissions around the world increased rather than the previous year. The post-corona economic recovery effect and the Russia-Ukraine crisis may be the main causes, but it is really serious.
Abnormal climate phenomena are already appearing around the world due to carbon emissions. Sudden heavy rains followed by droughts, followed by heatwaves and colds. In some places, seawater temperatures have soared 30 degrees above the average over the past 14 years. It is not a story of a distant country that polar bears have no place to live, but a reality that we have encountered. Now is the time for everyone to come together for carbon neutrality.
☞ [Source] Korea Policy Briefing (www.korea.kr)